Forecast Discussion

Current daily averages of fine particulates are in Code Green range statewide. Hourly ozone readings are currently in Code Green range statewide except for Lincoln County where low Code Yellow is being observed.

An upper-level high will be centered over the central Mississippi Valley on Saturday which will result in more northerly upper-level winds over our state. This will continue to bring in drier air aloft (as evident by lowering precipitable water values) which should lead to a bit more sunshine and only isolated precipitation chances. At the surface, weak high pressure will be in place and a weak surface low will be just offshore moving away. Both features will continue to bring a northeast wind across the state which will lead to pooling in the western third of the state where daily average fine particulates are likely to average in low Code Yellow range. Dew points will remain in the 70s due to the moist northeast low-level flow, and this, along with some convective afternoon clouds, and lower weekend emissions should help keep ozone averages in Code Green range.

The upper-level high will remain to our west Sunday and Monday and weak surface high pressure will remain in control over North Carolina. Overall, northeast winds will continue which will favor continued pooling in the west where Code Yellow daily averages for fine particulates are forecast. A front may drop into Virginia early next week and could bring some elevated PM2.5 down into our state but uncertainty remains. Ozone is expected to slightly increase in the Charlotte area through Monday with more sunshine and light winds. However, elevated dew points should keep production in check.