Forecast Discussion

Hourly ozone concentrations have reached the low Code Orange range in Mecklenburg County this afternoon, with Code Yellow concentrations being observed at almost all other monitors across the state. Current daily average fine particulate concentrations are in the Code Yellow range everywhere except the Mountains.

The unusually hot, dry weather continues as our airshed stagnates underneath high pressure. Gusty southwesterly winds on Thursday and a persistently smoky airshed will maintain widespread Code Yellow fine particulate levels statewide. I expect ozone production to ramp up again on Thursday afternoon but the stronger winds should help with dispersion. Overall a similar picture to Wednesday.

Air quality trends should slightly improve on Friday. The surface high will drift further offshore as an embedded shortwave disturbance passes overhead and drags a dry, weak cold front from the west. Guidance shows the front washing out somewhere in eastern NC, but the west-northwesterly wind shift should temporarily bring in some cleaner air. Southwesterly low-level flow returns on Saturday ahead of a strong cold front to come on Sunday. Fine particulates and ozone levels should hover in the upper Green to low Yellow range across the state Saturday.

With the persistent, worsening drought conditions the threat of wildfire(s) continues to increase. A statewide burn ban remains in place per the NC Forest Service, with very high to extreme fire danger forecasted across the state. The air quality in a given location could dramatically worsen due to wildfire smoke so please stay tuned to the forecast and report any smoke to: AQ_Forecast@deq.nc.gov