Forecast Discussion

Due to a lack of clouds, ozone levels are rising into the lower to middle Code Yellow range in the Charlotte and Triangle regions, while fine particulate levels remain elevated into the upper Code Green to lower Code Yellow range statewide.

Through the week, the southeast will be stuck between a strong upper level ridge developing over the TN valley and a trough over New England that will try to extend into the region. This will result in strong downsloping northwesterly winds aloft that will result in increasing H85 and surface temps. Concurrently, rounds of PVA will stream through the region during the period, making the daily precipitation, not to mention cloud, forecast challenging. If this wasn't enough complexity, some wildfire smoke aloft -- from fires in western NC -- may sporadically mix down to the surface resulting in a little additional elevation of both ozone and fine particulates.

There is likely to be some scattered showers and storms each afternoon that will put a lid on afternoon ozone formation in areas that are impacted. That in tandem with dewpoints holding in the 70s should limit how much ozone is formed, while the increasing moisture will likely result in fine particulate levels rising into the Code Yellow range. Overall, expect air quality to remain mostly in the upper Code Green to lower Code Yellow range across the state.