Forecast Discussion
The North Carolina Division of Air Quality issues forecasts for fine particulate matter year-round and ozone from March through October. Forecasts and discussions are updated each afternoon for the next three days, and are sometimes updated in the morning to reflect the latest ambient conditions.
This forecast was issued on Friday, July 26, 2024 at 3:36 pm.
This forecast is currently valid.
Today's Air Quality Conditions
Current daily averages for fine particulates are in the Code Green range across the state. However, some hourly levels have risen to low Code Yellow across the mountains and Piedmont, likely due to some wildfire smoke. Current hourly ozone readings are in the Code Green range statewide.
For a display of the most recent Air Quality Index (AQI) conditions throughout the day, visit the Ambient Information Reporter (AIR) tool.
General Forecast Discussion
Surface high pressure will begin to build in across the state Saturday in the wake of the surface front that passed through Friday. This will give much of the state a break from the cloudy, rainy pattern that has been in place over the region the past week as drier air in the mid-levels moves in. The airmass moving in is not particularly clean, due to wildfire smoke that is associated with wildfires across the western US and western Canada. This is supported by fine particulate readings upstream on Friday and even some monitors in the state that were showing elevated levels. Model guidance continues to show that this smoke will be around Saturday (and Sunday), especially across the Piedmont and Mountains where some pooling may occur due to northeasterly/easterly winds. Thus, we expect lower Code Yellow daily averages for fine particulate Saturday across this area and upper Code Green elsewhere. For 8-hour maximum average ozone levels, most of the state should remain in Code Green range. However, some sunshine and weaker winds may allow for the Charlotte metro area to finish in low Code Yellow range.
Outlook
High pressure will be centered over the state Sunday and will help bring more sunshine to the state, although some convective clouds will be around. Surface and low-level winds are expected to be weaker and the combination of both of those factors will likely allow ozone 8-hour maximum averages to rise into low Code Yellow in the Charlotte and Fayetteville areas as well as the Triangle. There is likely to still be some wildfire smoke lingering across the state, especially in the Mountains and across the Piedmont where pooling will continue. Fine particulate averages are forecast to remain in the low Code Yellow range in this area. Both ozone and fine particulate averages should return back to Code Green on Monday as clouds and rain chances increase ahead of a shortwave trough and stronger southerly winds stream in a more moist airmass.
Extended Air Quality Outlook
The forecast Air Quality Index value for each pollutant represents the highest value expected within each county, so some areas and monitors may see lower values. We use the best information and techniques available to ensure the quality and accuracy of the forecasts we provide to the public. Note that ranges do not include the nine-county Triad region, which is covered by the Forsyth County Office of Environmental Assistance and Protection.
Forecast Day
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![North Ridges](../oper/discussion/images/north_ridges_fill.png)
![South Ridges](../oper/discussion/images/south_ridges_fill.png)
(Elevation > 4,000 feet)