Forecast Discussion
The North Carolina Division of Air Quality issues forecasts for fine particulate matter year-round and ozone from March through October. Forecasts and discussions are updated each afternoon for the next three days, and are sometimes updated in the morning to reflect the latest ambient conditions.
This forecast was issued on Wednesday, May 1, 2024 at 3:07 pm.
This forecast is currently valid.
Today's Air Quality Conditions
Air quality concentrations are predominantly in the Code Green range thus far today across the state.
For a display of the most recent Air Quality Index (AQI) conditions throughout the day, visit the Ambient Information Reporter (AIR) tool.
General Forecast Discussion
Tomorrow, trend in NWP over past 48 hours has been to shift upper level shortwave further offshore and faster, resulting in H5 ridge axis building overhead. This will result in skies trending towards mostly sunny as compared to the previous expectation of scattered clouds, which will have a significant impact on ozone - it now appears with relatively dry and warm conditions in place that ozone levels will be able to rise substantially in a stagnating air mass. Mid Code Yellow ozone AQI concentrations are possible in the greater Charlotte metro area and especially to the west and northwest, with lower Code Yellow conditions possible in the Raleigh and Fayetteville regions. Fine particulate levels will likely hover in the upper Code Green range.
Outlook
Friday, as the H5 ridge axis slowly shifts eastward, mid levels winds will veer to southwesterly and begin to transport some moisture back into the region. Showers and a few storms may be possible late Friday afternoon, but the timing of this will have to be evaluated once again tomorrow. By Saturday, a weak shortwave disturbance centered around H7 will approach, and with the increasingly moist air mass should be enough to produce additional clouds and scattered showers. This should be enough to hold ozone levels in the Code Green range. Daily average fine particulates during this period will likely continue to hover near the Green/Yellow threshold, with highest values overnight through sunrise and gradually lowering hourly concentrations occurring thereafter as vertical mixing increases.
Extended Air Quality Outlook
The forecast Air Quality Index value for each pollutant represents the highest value expected within each county, so some areas and monitors may see lower values. We use the best information and techniques available to ensure the quality and accuracy of the forecasts we provide to the public. Note that ranges do not include the nine-county Triad region, which is covered by the Forsyth County Office of Environmental Assistance and Protection.
Forecast Day
AQI Range
Category Range
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North Ridges
South Ridges
(Elevation > 4,000 feet)