Forecast Discussion

Current ozone and daily average fine particulate levels have risen into the Code Yellow range throughout most of the Coastal Plain and Piedmont this afternoon.

Hot, dry weather continues this week as our airshed stagnates underneath high pressure. Widespread moderate fine particulate and ozone concentrations are expected statewide through Thursday. Strong overnight inversions will lead to higher PM2.5 concentrations in the overnight and morning hours which should decrease each afternoon as mixing increases. The fire in Marion County, SC could impact parts of Robeson, Bladen, Brunswick, New Hanover, and surrounding counties again on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as smoke settles into the inversion. Some afternoon ozone readings, especially in the major metro areas, could approach Code Orange levels in the coming days - exacerbated by lingering smoke and the hot, sunny weather.

Air quality trends may flatline or slightly improve on Friday. The surface high will drift further offshore and heights will briefly lower as a weak shortwave disturbance passes overhead and drags a dry, weak cold front from the west that looks to potentially wash out as it approaches the Coastal Plain. A westerly wind shift may temporarily bring in some cleaner air behind the weak front but Code Yellow conditions are expected to continue.

With the persistent, worsening drought conditions the threat of wildfire(s) continues to increase. A statewide burn ban remains in place per the NC Forest Service, with very high to extreme fire danger forecasted across the state. The air quality in a given location could dramatically worsen due to wildfire smoke so please stay tuned to the forecast and report any smoke to: AQ_Forecast@deq.nc.gov