Forecast Discussion
The North Carolina Division of Air Quality issues forecasts for fine particulate matter year-round and ozone from March through October. Forecasts and discussions are updated each afternoon for the next three days, and are sometimes updated in the morning to reflect the latest ambient conditions.
This forecast was issued on Wednesday, June 11, 2025 at 1:42 pm.
This is an old forecast that is no longer valid.
Today's Air Quality Conditions
Currently, daily averages for fine particulates are in Code Yellow range across parts of the Mountains, western Piedmont, and northern tier of the state. Hourly ozone readings are currently in Code Green range statewide except for Mecklenburg County where ozone is in Code Yellow range.
For a display of the most recent Air Quality Index (AQI) conditions throughout the day, visit the Ambient Information Reporter (AIR) tool.
General Forecast Discussion
A stalled front that has been in place across the state will slowly drift northward on Thursday as winds become more oriented from the south, although they will still be rather light. There will likely continue to be some wildfire smoke in the airshed, along and north of the front and that will lead to elevated PM2.5 averages in Code Yellow range across the Mountains, Piedmont, and along the northern tier of the state. A cleaner airmass will be found on the other side of the front with Code Green PM2.5 averages expected across much of the eastern half of the state. The ozone forecast is a bit tricky for Thursday, as there will be some wildfire smoke in the airshed that may aid in the formation of ozone. Surface and low-level winds will also be rather light and it'll be a warm, summery day. One of the bigger questions will be how much cloud cover is around, especially in the afternoon and evening. A warm and humid airmass will likely lead to scattered afternoon convection, especially across the Mountains and southwest Piedmont. We expect enough sunshine and combined with the other favorable conditions, should lead to adequate ozone formation in the Charlotte metro area with ozone 8-hour maximum averages in mid-Yellow range. However, more afternoon/evening clouds and rain could result in lower averages.
Outlook
A stronger south/southwesterly flow will kick in Friday and Saturday as the Bermuda High strengthens and dominates our weather pattern. This will bring a very humid airmass and more clouds and scattered showers and thunderstorms across the state. The airshed should clean out and we can expect to see Code Green air quality return statewide.
Daily PM2.5 values > 9.0 μg/m³, or in the Code Yellow range or higher, may contribute to an exceedance of the EPA's annual PM2.5 standard.
Extended Air Quality Outlook
The forecast Air Quality Index value for each pollutant represents the highest value expected within each county, so some areas and monitors may see lower values. We use the best information and techniques available to ensure the quality and accuracy of the forecasts we provide to the public. Note that ranges do not include the nine-county Triad region, which is covered by the Forsyth County Office of Environmental Assistance and Protection.
Forecast Day
View Maps
Max AQI Range
Category Range
Download KML


(Elevation > 4,000 feet)