Forecast Discussion

Currently, daily averages for fine particulates are in Code Yellow range across parts of the Mountains, western Piedmont, and northern tier of the state. Hourly ozone readings are currently in Code Green range statewide except for Mecklenburg County where ozone is in Code Yellow range.

A stalled front that has been in place across the state will slowly drift northward on Thursday as winds become more oriented from the south, although they will still be rather light. There will likely continue to be some wildfire smoke in the airshed, along and north of the front and that will lead to elevated PM2.5 averages in Code Yellow range across the Mountains, Piedmont, and along the northern tier of the state. A cleaner airmass will be found on the other side of the front with Code Green PM2.5 averages expected across much of the eastern half of the state. The ozone forecast is a bit tricky for Thursday, as there will be some wildfire smoke in the airshed that may aid in the formation of ozone. Surface and low-level winds will also be rather light and it'll be a warm, summery day. One of the bigger questions will be how much cloud cover is around, especially in the afternoon and evening. A warm and humid airmass will likely lead to scattered afternoon convection, especially across the Mountains and southwest Piedmont. We expect enough sunshine and combined with the other favorable conditions, should lead to adequate ozone formation in the Charlotte metro area with ozone 8-hour maximum averages in mid-Yellow range. However, more afternoon/evening clouds and rain could result in lower averages.

A stronger south/southwesterly flow will kick in Friday and Saturday as the Bermuda High strengthens and dominates our weather pattern. This will bring a very humid airmass and more clouds and scattered showers and thunderstorms across the state. The airshed should clean out and we can expect to see Code Green air quality return statewide.