Forecast Discussion

Again today, localized Code Red and Code Orange fine particulate concentrations are likely occurring across southwestern NC as a result of active wildfires. Otherwise, daily average fine particulate concentrations are mostly in the Code Yellow range statewide.

There will be no major changes to the current state of air quality on Thursday as light, dry southwest flow persists over the region. Fine particulate concentrations will remain mid-Code Yellow most everywhere across the state, with the exception of elevated values in the southwest corner largely due to the Collett Ridge Fire in Cherokee County. Effective tonight at midnight (12AM 11/9/2023) through midnight tomorrow (12AM 11/10/2023), we are issuing a Code Orange Air Quality Action Day for PM2.5 for the Southern Ridge Tops and Swain County, and a Code Red Air Quality Action Day for PM2.5 for Cherokee, Clay, and Macon Counties. The NC Forest Service has issued a Burn Ban today for several additional counties; more information can be found here.

The arrival of a cold front from northwest to southeast on Friday will help to lower PM2.5 levels statewide. At this time, we are forecasting Code Orange conditions for Cherokee and Clay Counties in anticipation of continued Collett Ridge Fire impacts, and Code Yellow conditions elsewhere. On Saturday, the clean air mass arriving behind the front should bring Code Green conditions statewide, with the possible exception of Cherokee and Clay counties; fire activity in this area will be closely monitored and the forecast adjusted if necessary.