Forecast Discussion

UPDATE: A rapidly growing wildfire (Crusoe Island Rd) in Columbus County appears to be producing a significant smoke plume as seen on satellite. We have issued a Code Orange Air Quality Action Day effective immediately through midnight for this fire. Remainder of forecast discussion below is still valid.

A temporary spike in hourly fine particulate levels into the Code Red range near Castle Hayne in New Hanover County is ongoing as a 100% contained wildfire hopefully winds down there. Smoke presentation on satellite with this fire is diminishing currently. Elsewhere, in Polk County the ongoing wildfires continue to produce smoke, although not as much as anticipated yesterday. However, it is still likely that localized Code Orange to possibly even Code Red conditions are occurring near this fire and to the north and east - if you see or smell smoke, avoid prolonged outdoor exposure. Elsewhere across the state, both fine particulate and ozone concentrations are in the Code Green range.

Tonight, a weak area of low pressure along a secondary cold front will cross the state during the evening. This should result in surface winds backing to northwesterly, which should direct smoke plumes from ongoing wildfires in Greenville County, SC away from NC. However, it appears this fire may have partially spread into Henderson County, NC and will maintain a precautionary Code Yellow in this area.

In Polk County, current estimates are that the Black Cove Complex fires now total approximately 5,754 acres and continue to grow and remain at 0% containment. Will continue to advertise Code Orange conditions in Polk County -- especially from the location of the fires in western Polk to the south and east -- with a Code Yellow for downwind in southwestern Rutherford County tomorrow. We will carefully monitor smoke activity and adjust the forecast accordingly.

Elsewhere across the state, expect air quality to remain predominantly in the Code Green range. Some isolated Code Yellow daily average concentrations are possible in locations downwind from the fires in the western Piedmont and Foothills.

Thursday into Friday, an area of high pressure will build overhead resulting in continued dry conditions. Will continue to monitor the ongoing wildfires and potential impacts in the coming days and adjust the forecast for this period accordingly.