Forecast Discussion

At least five areas of wildfire smoke continue to impact NC air quality.

1) A new wildfire, estimated at around 750 acres, has developed in southeastern Swain County. A significant smoke plume can be seen on satellite extending from this fire southeastward into Jackson County and this is expected to continue through the afternoon as winds increase out of the northwest. A Code Red (Swain) and Orange (Jackson) Air Quality Action Day remains in effect today for these counties.

2) The Table Rock fire in Greenvile County, SC continues to produce a prodigious smoke plume. This plume has begun to turn southeastward and is not currently impacting NC, but will be a major concern overnight into tomorrow for Transylvania and Henderson County.

3) Smoke is continuing in the vicinity of the Black Cove Complex fires in western Polk County. This plume will continue to impact southeastern Polk and far south/southwestern Rutherford County. A Code Red (Polk) and Orange (Henderson) Air Quality Action Day remains in effect for these counties.

4) Another new wildfire has ignited in southeastern Haywood County, with a visible plume on satellite.

5) Finally, a fire appears to have developed in extreme eastern Brunswick County with smoke blowing east into extreme southern New Hanover County. This fire and smoke appears to be diminishing this afternoon.

Air quality across the remainder of the state remains in the Code Green range this afternoon.

Tomorrow into Friday, an area of high pressure will build overhead resulting in continued dry conditions. As the center of the anticyclone tracks across the NC Piedmont tomorrow morning into early afternoon, surface winds will gradually veer to southerly and eventually southwesterly. This will result in smoke plumes gradually turning to the north and then northeast as the afternoon progresses.

As a result, we are concerned that the prodigious smoke and hourly Code Purple fine particulate concentrations currently being reported this afternoon in northern SC due to the Table Rock fire will redirect into Transylvania and Henderson County tomorrow. We have elected to proactively issue a Code Purple Air Quality Action Day for Transylvania County and a Code Red AQA for Henderson. If smoke continues to be produced at the same intensity as today, the risk of health effects is increased for everyone in these locations and appropriate actions to limit exposure should be taken. We have also issued a Code Red AQA alert for both Swain and Polk County due to the ongoing wildfires in these counties as well.

We will continue to monitor the evolution of the ongoing wildfire threats across NC and update the forecast accordingly in the coming days.