Forecast Discussion

There are now at least seven areas of wildfire smoke impacting NC air quality.

1) The Table Rock fire in Greenvile County, SC continues to produce a prodigious smoke plume. Numerous Purple Air monitors in the vicinity of the smoke located in Transylvania, Henderson and even Buncombe County are reporting significantly elevated fine particulate concentrations this afternoon. The fire detect signature with this fire continues to expand. An expansive smoke plume from this wildfire remains intense across eastern Transylvania and most of Henderson County. Heavier smoke has also built into southern Buncombe County, which has led to us upgrading Buncombe County to a Code Orange Air Quality Action Day for the remainder of today. This is by far the most intense fire and smoke currently on satellite and current estimates are that the fire has grown to over 4,500 acres and remains at 0% containment. As a result, we have extended the Code Purple Air Quality Action Day for Transylvania County tomorrow and added Henderson County. Buncombe County will be upgraded to a Code Red Air Quality Action Day for tomorrow due to expectations for a prolonged smoke plume from this fire to remain over the area.

2) An estimated 912 acre wildfire in southeastern Swain County continues to burn . A smoke plume -- although reduced from yesterday -- can still be seen on satellite extending from this fire to the southeast. Winds are light in Swain County and the smoke should predominantly remain confined in the terrain here. A Code Red (Swain) Air Quality Action Day remains in effect today and tomorrow for this fire.

3) Smoke is continuing in the vicinity of the Black Cove Complex fires in western Polk County. Two fires have grown to 3,000 acres each and are listed at 17% and 11% containment. Smoke plumes from these fires will continue to impact western and northern Polk and far western Rutherford County. A Code Red (Polk) and Orange (Henderson) Air Quality Action Day remains in effect for these counties today and will be continued tomorrow.

4) A smaller wildfire (~ 175 acres / 0% containment) continues in Haywood County, with a small but still visible plume on satellite.

5) Another small wildfire is also now listed in Buncombe County west of Asheville (~ 127 acres / 20% containment). Currently no visible smoke plume exists with this fire.

6) A fire from a couple days ago in Columbus County is still listed at 536 acres / 80% containment, but no visible smoke plume is evident at this time.

7) Another wildfire in northeast GA estimated at 812 acres continues to produce a visible smoke plume on satellite that has moved into southeastern Macon County. As a result we have extended the Code Orange Air Quality Action Day through tomorrow night.

Air quality across the remainder of the state remains in the Code Green range this afternoon.

Tomorrow, the center of surface high pressure that moved overhead today will gradually slide eastward and offshore, resulting in return flow from the Atlantic. However, tomorrow dewpoints are only expected to rise approximately 10 F and with rising surface temperatures, RH values will remain relatively low with values around 35% in western NC. With the high moving further offshore, surface winds will continue to gradually veer more southwesterly. This will result in smoke plumes gradually turning more and more northeastward tomorrow.

The net result tomorrow is that smoke and fire activity will likely be ongoing. Additionally, the air shed will gradually become more smoke laden with reduced air mass dispersion due to the lingering high pressure. We have elected to continue and expand the Code Purple Air Quality Action Day for Transylvania County to include Henderson County, with a Code Red Air Quality Action Day for Swain, Buncombe and Polk. If smoke continues to be produced at the same intensity as today, the risk of health effects is increased for everyone in these locations and appropriate actions to limit exposure should be taken.

A State of Emergency remains in effect, which states in part that: "the wildfires, combined with the abnormally dry conditions and moderate drought conditions, could have a significant impact on public health, public safety, and public and private property in the State of North Carolina..."

A statewide burn ban also remains in effect.

We will continue to monitor the evolution of the ongoing wildfire threats across NC and update the forecast accordingly in the coming days.