Forecast Discussion

At least seven areas of wildfire smoke continue to plague western NC air quality.

1) The Table Rock Complex fire, which has now crossed into extreme southern Transylvania County, NC has continued to grow and is now over 8,000 acres and remains at 0% containment. The smoke plume presentation on satellite today is not as expansive as yesterday, but a concentrated plume is still visible and extends from the fire to the east-northeast through Henderson, Buncombe and McDowell County. Purple air monitors in the path of the plume are still elevated -- though slightly less than yesterday -- but Code Purple AQI conditions still appear possible in Transylvania and Henderson County.

2) The Alarka Five wildfire, estimated at 911 acre / 5% containment, in southeastern Swain County continues to burn. A smoke plume is still seen on satellite extending from this fire to the east-northeast and may be brushing into far northwestern Jackson County. A Code Red (Swain) Air Quality Action Day remains in effect today and a Code Orange (Swain) will be continued tomorrow.

3) Enhanced smoke is continuing in the vicinity of the Black Cove Complex fires in western Polk County compared to yesterday. It appears some of the Table Rock Complex fire smoke has aggregated into this plume and may be partially responsible for the thicker smoke plume in western Polk and Rutherford County this afternoon. Two fires remain at just over 3,000 acres each and are listed at 17% and 30% containment. Smoke plumes from these fires will continue to impact western and northern Polk and far western Rutherford and McDowell County tomorrow. A Code Red (Polk, Rutherford and McDowell) Air Quality Action Day is now in effect for these counties today and Code Red (Polk) and Orange (Rutherford, McDowell) will be continued tomorrow. More in the forecast discussion below on the reduction in forecast AQI values.

4) The Rattlesnake Branch wildfire (629 acres / 5% containment) continues to grow in Haywood County, and a persistent smoke plume has been observed today on satellite. A Code Orange Air Quality Action Day (Haywood) is now in effect today and will be continued tomorrow.

5) The Freedom Farm wildfire, continues to burn in Buncombe County west of Asheville (130 acres / 90% containment). Currently no visible smoke plume exists with this fire.

6) The Crusoe Island Road wildfire in Columbus County is still listed at 536 acres / 80% containment, but no visible smoke plume has been evident for at least 48 hours.

7) The Big Ridge wildfire in northeast GA continues to grow and is now listed at 1,936 acres / 0% containment and continues to produce a persistent, visible smoke plume on satellite that continues to advect into southern Macon County. As a result we have extended the Code Orange Air Quality Action Day through tomorrow night (Macon).

Across the rest of the state, ozone levels are rising into the low Code Yellow range across much of the state due to smoke and a stagnating air mass. Fine particulate levels outside of wildfire smoke areas is predominantly in the Code Green range, but all of western NC is in the Code Yellow range.

Tonight into tomorrow, the center of Bermuda surface high pressure will slide even further east. Concurrently, a plume of maritime air will advect inland, bringing a welcome increase in dewpoints and resultantly humidity, along with a slightly weaker overnight temperature inversion. RH values overnight tonight and through the day tomorrow should also increase over previous days, which will hopefully help with firefighting efforts. Surface winds tomorrow afternoon will remain out of the south and wind speeds will increase to between 10-15 kts, which will result in smoke plumes orienting more-or-less south to north as the day progresses.

Although some slightly less favorable atmospheric conditions for fire maintenance and growth may be present tomorrow, smoke and fire activity is still likely to be ongoing. Due to the mitigating factors and slightly reduced smoke plume visible today, have elected to slightly decrease forecast AQI values tomorrow. With the maritime air mass pushing inland, air quality from Charlotte to the Triad and east should be relatively good, while western NC will remain in the more smoke laden air mass.

A State of Emergency remains in effect, which states in part that: "the wildfires, combined with the abnormally dry conditions and moderate drought conditions, could have a significant impact on public health, public safety, and public and private property in the State of North Carolina..."

A statewide burn ban also remains in effect.

We will continue to monitor the evolution of the ongoing wildfire threats across NC and update the forecast accordingly in the coming days.