Forecast Discussion

At least five active wildfires continue to plague western NC air quality as smoke continues to advect into the airshed.

1) The Table Rock Complex fire, which has now crossed into extreme southern Transylvania County, NC has continued to grow and is now estimated at 10,904 acres and remains at 0% containment. Clouds have obscured satellite view of smoke today. Purple air monitors in the path of the plume are still elevated -- again a bit less than yesterday -- but Code Red AQI conditions still appear possible in Transylvania and Henderson County.

2) The Alarka Five wildfire, estimated at 1,078 acres / 10% containment, in southeastern Swain County continues to burn.

3) The Black Cove Complex fires in western Polk County have grow to 3,410 and 3,797 acres each and are listed at 23% and 32% containment.

4) The Rattlesnake Branch wildfire (1,200 acres / 20% containment) continues to grow in Haywood County.

5) The Big Ridge wildfire in northeast GA continues was listed yesterday at 1,936 acres / 0% containment and no updates today have been made yet available online for this fire.

Across the rest of the state, air quality levels are predominantly in the Code Green range, but fine particulate levels west of Charlotte -- even in areas not directly impacted by wildfire smoke -- are in the Code Yellow range.

Tonight into tomorrow, a broad upper level trough over the central CONUS will lift into the Great Lakes. An attendant surface low / cold front will also push east and combined with the persistent Bermuda high pressure in the Atlantic a strengthening moist southerly flow will increase. With only weak lifting mechanisms in place, the moistening column won't have much to produce rain, but some patchy showers will be possible overnight and through the day tomorrow. QPF totals on most NWP range from only 0.10" - 0.20" at best, but precipitation coverage will likely be spotty. We can only pray that some beneficial rains will fall over the wildfire locations and assist the relentless firefighting efforts that have been ongoing for a week now.

With increasing humidity and the potential for rain tomorrow, smoke and fire activity will likely be reduced some, but still ongoing. Due to the mitigating factors, have elected to slightly decrease forecast AQI values once again tomorrow. Air quality from Charlotte to the Triad and east remain good, while western NC will continue to be in the more smoke laden air mass, although the spatial extent of smoke tomorrow may be reduced, especially in locations that receive some cleansing rain.

A State of Emergency remains in effect, which states in part that: "the wildfires, combined with the abnormally dry conditions and moderate drought conditions, could have a significant impact on public health, public safety, and public and private property in the State of North Carolina..."

A statewide burn ban also remains in effect.

We will continue to monitor the evolution of the ongoing wildfire threats across NC and update the forecast accordingly in the coming days.