Forecast Discussion

The wildfires in both Graham and McDowell County continue to burn and the Code Orange Air Quality Action Days for PM2.5 remain in effect. There was some localized heavy smoke/fog in Onslow County this morning, but little smoke can be seen currently on satellite in this area. Areas to the northwest of the fires could experience intermittent smoke this afternoon and evening as winds slowly increase out of the southeast. Elsewhere across the state, fine particulate levels remain in the Code Green range.

Ozone levels have began to rise into the low Code Yellow range at many sites across the state except for in the Triangle north and east where hourly levels remain in the upper Code Green range.

Through Sunday, an H5 ridge will continue to build overhead while surface high pressure remains centered just west of Bermuda. Surface winds will remain persistent out of the south-southwest through the period. Ongoing wildfire smoke will likely remain an issue in Graham and McDowell County until firefighting efforts are able to reduce fire growth.

Mostly sunny skies and an increasingly stagnant air mass will likely result in both ozone and fine particulate levels gradually rising into the Code Yellow range across the state, outside of smoke-impacted areas. Additionally, persistent prescribed burning activity (especially in GA and SC) that continues today will likely result in an increasingly smoke laden air mass moving into at least western NC starting tomorrow (as indicated by smoke model guidance). This will have the potential to exacerbate conditions. Ozone and fine particulate levels as soon as tomorrow could elevate significantly depending on the amount of smoke in the air shed and we will continue to monitor for this potential and adjust the forecast based on trends.

We will continue to track the ongoing wildfires in western NC (and in Onslow County) and adjust the forecast as needed.