Air Quality Portal
Forecast Discussion
The North Carolina Division of Air Quality issues forecasts for fine particulate matter year-round and ozone from March through October. Forecasts and discussions are updated each afternoon for the next three days, and are sometimes updated in the morning to reflect the latest ambient conditions.
This forecast was issued on Friday, April 18, 2025 at 2:43 pm.
This is an old forecast that is no longer valid.
Today's Air Quality Conditions
Mostly a persistence forecast on this Good Friday. The wildfires in both Graham and McDowell County continue to burn and the Code Orange Air Quality Action Days for PM2.5 remain in effect. Areas to the northwest of the fires could experience intermittent smoke this afternoon and evening as winds slowly increase out of the southeast.
One change today is that ozone levels are rising into the Code Yellow range statewide and fine particulate levels are also in the Code Yellow range except along the immediate coastline.
One change today is that ozone levels are rising into the Code Yellow range statewide and fine particulate levels are also in the Code Yellow range except along the immediate coastline.
For a display of the most recent Air Quality Index (AQI) conditions throughout the day, visit the Ambient Information Reporter (AIR) tool.
General Forecast Discussion
Through Monday, an H5 ridge will continue to build overhead while surface high pressure remains centered just west of Bermuda. Surface winds will remain persistent out of the south-southwest through the period. Ongoing wildfire smoke will likely remain an issue in Graham and McDowell County until firefighting efforts are able to reduce fire growth.
Mostly sunny skies and an increasingly stagnant air mass will likely result in both ozone and fine particulate levels gradually rising into the Code Yellow range across the state, outside of smoke-impacted areas. Additionally, persistent prescribed burning activity (especially in GA) that continues today will likely continue to result in an increasingly smoke laden air mass moving into at least western NC (as indicated by smoke model guidance). This will have the potential to exacerbate conditions. Ozone and fine particulate levels will likely remain elevated depending on the amount of smoke in the air shed and we will continue to monitor for this potential and adjust the forecast based on trends.
Mostly sunny skies and an increasingly stagnant air mass will likely result in both ozone and fine particulate levels gradually rising into the Code Yellow range across the state, outside of smoke-impacted areas. Additionally, persistent prescribed burning activity (especially in GA) that continues today will likely continue to result in an increasingly smoke laden air mass moving into at least western NC (as indicated by smoke model guidance). This will have the potential to exacerbate conditions. Ozone and fine particulate levels will likely remain elevated depending on the amount of smoke in the air shed and we will continue to monitor for this potential and adjust the forecast based on trends.
Outlook
We will continue to track the ongoing wildfires in western NC (and in Onslow County) and adjust the forecast as needed.
Daily PM2.5 values > 9.0 μg/m³, or in the Code Yellow range or higher, may contribute to an exceedance of the EPA's annual PM2.5 standard.
Extended Air Quality Outlook
The forecast Air Quality Index value for each pollutant represents the highest value expected within each county, so some areas and monitors may see lower values. We use the best information and techniques available to ensure the quality and accuracy of the forecasts we provide to the public. Note that ranges do not include the nine-county Triad region, which is covered by the Forsyth County Office of Environmental Assistance and Protection.
Forecast Day
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