Forecast Discussion

A large wildfire (850+ acres), named the Black Swamp Fire, is currently burning in Jones County in the Croatan National Forest with a visible smoke plume on satellite imagery. An inversion is expected to develop tonight through Tuesday morning and surface winds are expected to turn light to calm in the area which will trap smoke near the surface, leading to air quality issues. Thus, we are issuing a Code Orange Air Quality Action Day for fine particulates now through Tuesday. Inversions are expected to break later Tuesday morning and winds will increase and turn out of the south, both which will help increase dispersion. The forecast discussion for the rest of the state remains valid and is below.

The center of surface high pressure will slide off the coast Tuesday and an upper-level ridge will move overhead. Southeast to southwest winds will be found across the state on the western side of the high pressure system. This will lead to some pooling again across the western Piedmont and foothills where daily average fine particulates of Code Yellow are expected. Otherwise, fine particulates should decrease eastward across the state with some cleaner marine air mixing in closer to the coast. As for ozone, there should be a decent amount of sunshine across the eastern two-thirds of the state which will favor ozone formation. Expect Code Yellow ozone maximum 8-hour averages in the Charlotte area as well as Fayetteville to Raleigh area.

High pressure will remain anchored just off the coast Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front will move south into Virginia but will stall and eventually trek back northward as a warm front during this time. The front will remain north of North Carolina. Thus, the main driving factor of the weather the next couple of days will be the high pressure system and the southerly flow on the western side which will help to keep daily average fine particulates in Code Yellow range across much of the state. Code Yellow ozone will likely continue for the Charlotte, Fayetteville, and Raleigh areas.