Forecast Discussion

Current hourly ozone readings are in Code Green range statewide except for Edgecombe and Granville counties where Code Yellow is being observed. Daily averages for fine particulates are a mix of Code Yellow and Code Green across the state. The only exception is near the Black Swamp Fire in Jones and Craven counties where wildfire smoke is leading to more degraded air quality.

Surface high pressure will be just off the coast again Wednesday and with the state on the western side of the high, winds will be out of the southwest. There should be a decent amount of sunshine across the state and with H85 temperatures rising, it'll be a very warm afternoon. A cold front will try to approach the state from the north but will stall across Virginia. There could be some scattered showers and thunderstorms near the NC/VA border in the afternoon but should not have much impact on the AQ forecast. With little changing from Tuesday (aside from the warmer temps), the AQ forecast should be similar to that of Tuesday. Expect Code Yellow daily average fine particulates for much of the central portion of the state and Code Yellow maximum 8-hour averages for ozone for Charlotte, Fayetteville and Raleigh areas as well as the Triad. As for the Black Swamp Fire in Jones County, the fire grew a little on Tuesday and containment efforts continue. Smoke is expected to continue to impact Jones County and with the southwest wind, will also impact Craven County. Lighter winds in the morning along with inversions will lead to the worst air quality in the morning, with afternoon mixing and an increase in surface winds helping to disperse some smoke later in the day. Air quality will continue to be degraded near and downwind of the fire so we are opting to continue the Code Orange Air Quality Action Day for Jones County Wednesday, and also expand that to include Craven County.

The pattern will remain similar on Thursday with persistent southerly/southwesterly winds across the state. It'll be another warm one and ozone will be a tick higher across parts of the state. Friday will see a little bit more cloud cover as an upper-level trough begins to move in overhead. This may lead to a slight reduction in ozone averages, but fine particulates will remain in Code Yellow range both days for most of the state.