Forecast Discussion

Current hourly ozone readings are in Code Green range statewide. Daily averages for fine particulates so far today are in Code Yellow range across much of the state except for the Coastal Plain. The only exception in the Coastal Plain is in Jones and Craven counties where localized smoke from the Black Swamp Fire is likely leading to degraded air quality near and just downstream of the wildfire.

The Bermuda High will continue to bring south/southwest flow across the state on Friday, keeping the same weather regime in place for the most part. From an air quality perspective, with no large changes in the airshed anticipated, we'll continue to see slightly elevated fine particulates in Code Yellow range for daily averages across the Piedmont as we have seen much of this week. More cleaner, marine influenced air across the Coastal Plain will keep averages in Code Green range. The only exception to that is in Jones and Craven counties where the Black Swamp Fire continues to burn, although satellite imagery Thursday afternoon has not revealed much smoke. Any smoke from that fire can still lead to localized degraded air quality, particularly near and just downstream of the wildfire, and thus we are still forecasting Upper Code Yellow air quality to account for that. For ozone, the entire state should see 8-hour maximum averages in Code Green range due to increasing moisture and clouds, as well as adequate dispersion and mixing through the day. There will still be some sunshine at times though, and with another warm afternoon, hourly values may reach into low Code Yellow in Charlotte, Fayetteville, and Raleigh areas.

The weekend will feature a shift in the weather pattern as a closed upper-level low over the Ohio Valley is forecast to cut-off from the main flow and stall. North Carolina will be on the eastern side of this cut-off low so we can expect to see a continued increase in moisture as well as more clouds and a rather wet stretch of days. All of this will help improve air quality, with statewide Code Green expected by Sunday.