Forecast Discussion

A wildfire is currently burning in Brunswick county near Boiling Springs Lake. Satellite imagery shows a large plume of smoke and the fire has quickly grown from 10 acres to 100+ acres in the past couple of hours and is 0% contained. Webcams in the Wilmington area show a smoky haze as well. South/southwest winds will likely taper some heading into tonight, but the direction will likely remain persistent with the main smoke plume oriented SSW to NNE. Weak inversions are likely to set up tonight which will keep more smoke closer to the surface. Thus, we are issuing a CODE RED Air Quality Action Day for Brunswick County and a CODE ORANGE Air Quality Action Day for New Hanover County. Both are effective now through midnight Saturday night. The previous discussion remains below and is still valid for the rest of the state.

A strong upper-level low will cut-off over the Ohio River Valley Saturday and will aid in the development of weak surface low pressure to the northwest. Stiff southerly winds will develop across the state due to an increasing pressure gradient between this low and the Bermuda High to the east. This will continue to advect in moisture across the state and given that the state will be on the eastern edge of the upper-level low, favorable large scale uplift will lead to more clouds and numerous showers and thunderstorms, especially in the western half of the state and in the afternoon and evening. Given all of this, the state should see some slight improvements in air quality, with more counties forecast to be in Code Green range. The only exceptions will be the western Piedmont where winds may lead to some pooling and also in Jones and Craven counties where some lingering smoke from the Black Swamp Fire may lead to localized higher PM2.5 averages.

The cut-off low will continue to meander over the Ohio River Valley Sunday and Monday. With rain helping to clean the airshed Saturday into Sunday, along with adequate mixing and dispersion expected Sunday and Monday, air quality should fall into and stay within Code Green range statewide both days.