Forecast Discussion

Current daily average fine particulate concentrations are in the Code Yellow range almost statewide, the highest being in portions of the southwest Piedmont region where several Air Quality Action Days are in effect.

A weak shortwave and associated low pressure system moving through the Mid-Atlantic region will continue to bring scattered rain to the region on Saturday. The stagnant, smoke-laden airmass present in the morning may slightly improve throughout the day thanks to gustier SW winds. The bulk of the particle pollution will then migrate east as low-level flow veers westerly, followed by a cold front that will begin to sweep through from the north in the evening. Moderate conditions will persist everywhere except the mountains, where upper Code Green is expected.

The aforementioned cold front will have ushered in a much drier (but not markedly cleaner) airmass on Sunday and Monday as high pressure builds in again. A continuation of Code Yellow daily average PM2.5 concentrations across the state is likely.