Forecast Discussion

Current daily averages of fine particulates are in Code Yellow range across parts of the Piedmont. Current hourly ozone readings are in Code Yellow range in Mecklenburg and Rowan counties. Air quality is in Code Green range elsewhere.

A cold front will begin to move into the state from the west on Saturday and will bring increasing clouds and scattered showers/storms, especially later in the day, primarily west of I-95. South/southwesterly winds ahead of the front will continue to advect in warm and moist air as well as higher fine particulates, and with some pooling along the front, we can expect much of the state to see Code Yellow daily averages. Also contributing to elevated fine particulates will be some wildfire smoke from fires in the western US and Canada which actually has already been influencing readings today (Friday). While much of the smoke will remain well aloft, there will still be some smoke that mixes down. Increasing clouds and the threat for showers/storms, as well as lower weekend emissions, should keep maximum 8-hour ozone averages in Code Green range statewide.

The cold front will continue to slowly move across the state on Sunday and will settle along or just off of the coast on Monday. High pressure will build in behind it and winds will shift out of the northeast, ushering in a more comfortable airmass. The incoming airmass should help bring air quality back into Code Green range statewide, although it's still a little uncertain how quickly this occurs and how clean the airmass may be. For now, we are forecasting mid-to-upper Code Green air quality.