Forecast Discussion

Air quality is in Code Green range across the entire state today.

High pressure to our north will continue to bring an easterly flow across the state on Tuesday. This will keep the airshed clean with fine particulates remaining in Code Green range. A weak frontal boundary will remain stalled near the NC/SC border and this, combined with weak upper-level energy, will lead to clouds and scattered showers/thunderstorms across the southern tier of the state. As the day progresses, some drier air will push in from the north and clouds will break for a little more sunshine, especially across the northern tier of the state. However, the cleaner airshed, clouds, and scattered rain will keep ozone levels reduced with Code Green maximum 8-hour averages expected statewide.

The pattern will begin to change Wednesday and Thursday as an upper-level ridge builds in overhead and weak high pressure builds in at the surface. Both will support more sunshine and warmer temperatures and a stagnating airmass. Winds on Wednesday look very light and variable across the state and given the sunny and warm conditions, ozone production could ramp up quickly in the Charlotte region and across the Triangle. As of right now, we are forecasting mid-to-upper Code Yellow maximum 8-hour ozone averages and we'll continue to monitor to see if any upwards adjustments are needed. As for fine particulates, the stagnating airmass midweek will lead to Code Yellow daily averages for most of the state by Thursday.