Forecast Discussion

Air quality concentrations across the state remain in the Code Green range this afternoon.

A humid air mass will continue to interact with a mid-level trough axis to the west and produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms through Thursday. Air quality levels are expected to remain in the Code Green range.

By Friday, the upper level trough axis will have finally crossed the region an will be east of the Carolinas. A weak surface front and attendant drier air are also modeled to push into the region. Concurrently, a weak area of high pressure -- in the area of NVA behind the upper trough axis -- will assist in pushing the front into the region and creating mostly sunny skies with warming surface temps and reduced relative humidity. These are all favorable ingredients for ozone formation, with the main inhibitor being the relatively clean (and previously rain-cleansed) air mass in place. Will continue to monitor trends but project low to mid Code Yellow in the major metropolitan regions, with upper Code Green forecast elsewhere for now. Friday will likely herald the start of an increasingly warm period, with ozone likely to become more active through the weekend and on into next week.