Forecast Discussion

Air quality levels are in the Code Green range statewide today. Smoke from the ongoing wildfires in western NC has significantly decreased compared to last week thanks to recent rainfall but may still be resulting in moderate fine particulate levels at locations close to the fires.

Temps and moisture will begin to increase on Wednesday as a warm front lifts north across the state. Onshore flow throughout the day should help maintain a clean airshed east of the Mountains.

Some very light rain is expected in the Mountains with upslope flow and weak CAD conditions developing. Although no smoke plumes are currently visible, we will maintain Code Yellow daily average fine particulate concentrations in western NC to account for smoldering wildfires and particle pollution accumulating in this region. Max 8-hour ozone levels should hold in the upper Code Green range statewide thanks to cloud cover.

A strong subtropical ridge over the eastern US/Atlantic will persist through the week and weekend, with no meaningful precipitation or pattern change over NC expected until possibly Sunday. Surface high pressure will very slowly drift over New England, offshore, and then south over the Atlantic while holding its grip on the east coast. Strong Gulf moisture advection and sufficient cloud cover will help tamp down ozone production through Friday. Fine particulate levels may remain in the moderate range in western NC through Friday, with Code Green conditions expected elsewhere.