Forecast Discussion

NCDAQ’s monitoring network was affected by the global Microsoft services outage on July 19th, which continues to prevent us from viewing data from several monitors across the state through the weekend. Based on all other available information, including local programs’ and low cost sensor data, fine particulate and ozone readings are in the good to moderate range statewide.

For the entirety of the forecast period (again), North Carolina still sits between a mid/upper level trough over the central US and a ridge over Atlantic, leading to persistent moisture advection from the southwest. Several shortwave disturbances lifting between these synoptic features will continue to interact with the weak stationary front in the southeast region and initiate showers and thunderstorms again on Monday. Expect Code Green air quality statewide.

Unsettled weather will continue through Wednesday as the overall synoptic setup remains much the same. Cloud cover and diurnal convection will keep max 8-hour ozone levels in the Code Green range. Model guidance does suggest some Saharan dust intrusion beginning on Tuesday from the east, so have forecasted low Code Yellow daily average PM2.5 concentrations for the Coastal Plain on Tuesday and Wednesday, with upper Code Green conditions across the rest of the state.